Objective: reverse the amnesty

Vox would obtain a minimum of sixty deputies today in a general election, according to the latest published polls. They are at the level of 18%, almost six points above the results obtained in the general elections of July 23, 2023, of which this week marks three years.

The Amnesty legislature is being beneficial for Vox, and the shock wave of Trumpism is even more so. The party of Santiago Abascal It is today a magnet that attracts angry Spaniards. The initials have more magnetism than the leader. For many people, Vox today means protesting, shaking, embarrassing, saying this is as far as we have come. They have effective digital machinery, they have ideas and they have powerful international patronage. Without so much external support, Podemos played that role on the left side a decade ago. They surpassed 20% of the votes and approached seventy deputies. They were about to surpass the PSOE. Pedro Sanchez avoided it and Felipe González It seems that he has not forgiven himself.

Podemos was part of the final wake of Obamawhen social networks worked with a Democratic algorithm. Elon Musk I hadn’t bought Twitter yet. A group of Political Science professors from the Complutense University, who would later end up fighting among themselves, without ice axes, but with great bitterness, believed they saw a fantastic digital shortcut on the tortuous path of historical materialism. They scared the Socialist Party, they managed to enter the Government, they have had a notable influence for ten years, but the PSOE, the main warehouse of political tricks that operates in Spain, knew how to trap them by promising space, protection and a media shield to a new, kinder and more pragmatic version of Podemos that would be called Sumar. Today Sumar is an empty convent, in which the wind beats doors and windows. Yolanda Diaz has left the scene without waiting for the end of the legislature. If you don’t want me, I’m leaving. The PSOE does not collapse in the polls thanks to the judge’s excesses Juan Carlos Peinado and the willing voters of Sumar, who adore Sánchez.

Vox belongs to another time. Vox is part of the phosphorescent wake of Trumpism in a Europe in a critical state, with the National Front galloping towards the presidency of the French Republic, and with the extreme right about to start winning regional elections in Germany. Waiting for the mid-term elections in the United States, which Trump is already threatening to blow up in November if the results are adverse to him, Vox is in a sweet moment. It’s your time.

They begin to act as a guiding party for the right. They set the pace and set ideas. They have politically won the regional electoral cycle that has given them Alberto Núñez Feijóothey have imposed the currency of the national priority in Andalusia, the most populated autonomous community in Spain. They set the pace and are the Spanish political force best communicated with the United States Government. They inform and are informed. Didn’t you know José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero?

Pay attention to this fact: the North American State Department has just launched a five million dollar fund to help think thanks and to civil groups friendly to Trumpism in various parts of the world. From Berlin, the chancellor Friedrich Merz He has already warned that he does not want US interference in the German regional elections. They are serious. They are creating the architecture to intervene in the decisive electoral battles that will take place in Europe next year. They are building their third international. Vox is not a right-wing Podemos. It’s something else. It is a sign of protest and a sign of power. Depending on how things go in the 2027 elections in France (presidential), Spain, Italy and Poland (legislative), the entire European framework will change direction.

The battle is European. In this context, it is relevant that Junts is deciding to stand up to Aliança Catalana on an ideological level. They want to be closer to Leo XIV what of trump. They have listened to Jordi Pujol. It is significant that they decided this after the Luxembourg verdict. In Catalonia, on a small scale, the great European battles are always visualized. Aliança Catalana and Vox currently have a vote projection of 30% in the polls.

Vox’s opinion on the European endorsement of the amnesty for the Catalan independence movement is also relevant. It cannot be ignored. The MEP Jorge Buxadea prominent member of the leading nucleus, has launched a challenge to the Popular Party: reversal of the Amnesty law in the next legislature. Will that be one of Vox’s conditions for Feijóo’s investiture?

Feijóo says he wants to turn the page. I would like to have a free hand with Junts and the PNV, he is still thinking about a motion of censure, that motion that he has not yet dared to present; I would like a decimated, ashamed PSOE, with eighty deputies, with Sánchez rowing in galleys, a corrected PSOE with which it could agree on state policies under the blessing of Felipe González.

José María Aznar he corrects that script nervously because he doesn’t want to give more space to Vox. Aznar has just said that “seditious aggression against the law cannot go unpunished.” Who can make it do. This is not going to stay like this.

Summary. The PSOE resists more than expected thanks to the transfer of votes from Sumar. And on the right a new dilemma arises: turn the page on the processes or go to the general elections with the promise of a new punitive process in Catalonia. “Sedition cannot go unpunished.” Legal formulas would not be lacking in a country in which there are already veteran jurists imagining that a impeachment of Sánchez invoking article 102 of the Constitution, under the accusation of “high treason.”

Will the PSOE continue to hold out?

Who is in charge on the right?